DFS Analysis for Ortega vs Jung at Fight Island for Fanduel Contests (10/17/20)
The UFC brings fight fans more action from Abu Dhabi for Ortega vs Jung from Fight Island. Here are two of my top underdog plays for DFS contests on Fanduel on Saturday.
CLAUDIO SILVA (FD $13) – In 2007, Silva lost his first his first professional fight due to a disqualification. Since then he has won 14 straight for a career record of 14-1. Silva is a submission expert with a 9 wins by submission as well as 2 wins by KO/TKO and 3 wins by decision. He is a perfect 5-0 in the octagon and has two first round finishes in that span. He will fight James Krause who is a very experienced fighter with a career record of 27-8. Krause has 14 submissions to his credit and will be willing to engage Silva on the ground. Krause should have the advantage in standup but Silva should be better on the ground. In his five UFC fights, Silva already has as many submissions as Krause does in 12 UFC fights.
Caveman’s advice: The average salary on Fanduel is $16. At three dollars below average, Silva is a bargain with big upside. He is a small dog in this matchup but he figures to have the grappling advantage and is on a major win streak. He is no guarantee, but his upside makes him a great GPP play with a bargain price tag. Due to his low cost, I would also consider giving him cash lineups as well. Silva has too much potential to ignore for a fighter with 8 first round finishes in just 15 fights.
(At the time of this writing, Claudio Silva is +119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 48.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS (FD $10) – In his UFC debut, Bukauskas scored a first round finish after the referee stopped the fight between rounds due to a visibly compromised opponent (who had just taken several elbows prior to the bell). Bukauskas has now won his last seven fights. In that span he has finished each of his opponents including five finishes in the first round during that span. As a professional Bukauskas is 11-2 with ten finishes including 8 wins by KO/TKO, two wins by submission and one win by decision. He will fight Jimmy Crute who will be a substantial favorite but will give up one inch in height and four inches in reach to Bukauskas.
Caveman’s advice: This is a major test for the young Lithuanian fighter, but he has the skills to finish opponents at a cheap salary. He is low risk at just $10 in salary and his ceiling is very high. His longer reach will cause problems for Crute and this makes him significantly more playable in DFS contests. This is a boom/bust play but one that is worth the risk in GPP contests. This fight has a high probability of ending before the final bell at -385 to not go to a decision. At the second lowest salary of all fighters, Bukauskas has enough potential in this won to give him measured exposure in all multi-entry contests.
(At the time of this writing, Modestas Bukauskas is +245 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 36.45 on Fantasy Cruncher.)